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2025-10-30 10:41:09

Kindly MD's Bitcoin Strategy: Post-Selloff Valuation Looks Compelling

Summary After merging with Nakamoto, Kindly MD pivoted to a Bitcoin-treasury strategy while maintaining negligible legacy outpatient healthcare services in Utah. NAKA has secured a loan from Two Prime and redeemed a Yorkville debenture. The long-term goal remains to continue refinancing and growing its Bitcoin holdings. The main risk remains the Nasdaq’s new regulations that require shareholder approval for equity-funded crypto purchases. However, NAKA’s Bitcoin holdings imply a much more reasonable valuation for the stock at these levels. Therefore, I believe NAKA’s risk-reward equation has substantially improved, which is why I upgrade it to a viable speculative “buy” for long-term Bitcoin bulls. Kindly MD, Inc. ( NAKA ) is a Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) treasury accumulator. However, part of what makes them unique is that they also maintain their legacy outpatient healthcare activities. After the merger with Nakamoto Holdings, the company has focused on supporting its crypto-treasury goals. In this sense, the most pressing matter has been navigating the Nasdaq's ( NDAQ ) new scrutiny of crypto purchases financed by equity. Having said that, I feel that NAKA now offers much more value after the recent sell-off. So, if you’re a long-term Bitcoin bull, NAKA could be a viable speculative “Buy” at these levels. Crypto Treasury With A Spin Kindly MD, Inc. is a public Bitcoin treasury company that also keeps healthcare facilities for cannabis-related treatments. Those operations were part of Kindly’s legacy before merging with Nakamoto Holdings, which was completed in August 2025. The firm is currently headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah. I previously covered NAKA last September, rating them a “Hold” at the time because I saw several regulatory uncertainties related to Nasdaq’s crypto policies. Since then, the stock has declined substantially by approximately 78.8%, so I think it’s worth updating that analysis. Source: NAKA’s dashboard as shown on its website. October 2025. One thing that immediately stands out is that NAKA’s website has been updated to a new, sleek dashboard that displays its Bitcoin holdings. And indeed, this is aligned with its new strategic priority related to accumulating Bitcoin. In fact, NAKA has rapidly shifted towards financial operations that try to enhance this strategy. For example, on October 3, 2025, NAKA disclosed it had entered an open credit facility with Two Prime Lending Limited. This way, NAKA received $203,017,500 as a loan and used those proceeds to redeem a $200 million Yorkville debenture at a $2.80 conversion price. This move matters because their Yorkville instrument could have been converted into equity at $2.80 per share. So, by redeeming this instrument with cash, it effectively reduced that latent dilution risk. On top of that, Two Prime is a Bitcoin-native lender, so this partnership aligned perfectly with NAKA’s crypto treasury accumulation strategy. Then, by October 7, NAKA announced that its treasury unit, Nakamoto Holdings, and Antalpha Platform Holding Company ( ANTA ) signed a letter of intent. The terms were for five-year $250 million convertible notes to be issued to Antalpha to refinance the Two Prime credit line and to expand BTC holdings. In other words, NAKA is essentially swapping a short-term Bitcoin loan for a longer-term one. The idea is to lower its cash-cost financing structure while preserving its Bitcoin treasury balance. Source: NAKA’s dashboard as shown on its website. October 2025. Additionally, any liability for its Bitcoin holdings can be potentially funded via new equity issuance under its recently filed ATM . Naturally, those terms are yet to be determined based on when they issue shares and their stock price, but this strategy is similar in spirit to Strategy Inc.’s ( MSTR ) approach. Still, underneath the fancy financial operations, the idea is to try to balance accumulating as much Bitcoin as possible while having reasonably responsible risk-management practices. Basically the same idea as MSTR, which has Bitcoin as its core treasury asset, and raises capital to buy more and accumulate it as a reserve. Next Key Event And Bitcoin Holdings Furthermore, the next main event for NAKA will be its upcoming annual meeting in December 2025. In this meeting, NAKA will elect Class I directors and vote on the reincorporation of the company from Utah to Delaware. But more importantly, this move will realign NAKA with common large-cap governance norms that may offer more flexible corporate and financing mechanics. And this could be vital for NAKA because of the increased Nasdaq scrutiny around equity issuance for crypto purchases. Source: Nakamoto’s October Investor Newsletter. October 2025. You see, the Nasdaq's previous rules didn’t have in mind that companies could simply start issuing equity to purchase crypto. However, since MSTR pioneered this strategy, a flurry of other companies started adopting a similar approach to accumulating cryptos. As a result, the Nasdaq decided to issue new rules regarding these types of capital raises, which effectively constrained this type of equity issuance to some extent. The Nasdaq now requires explicit shareholder approval before issuing shares to buy crypto. That’s why NAKA’s Bitcoin position has remained virtually flat around 5.76 thousand Bitcoin since their last purchase in August 2025. I would imagine that this statistic will hold at least until completing their Two Prime and Antalpha facilities and gaining the required governance approvals. But again, this is precisely why I was hesitant to give a bullish rating to NAKA in my initial article. After all, regulatory and structural hurdles, like Nasdaq’s closer oversight, shareholder approval for crypto purchases, could slow down its accumulation pace. Valuation And Risk Analysis Now, from a valuation perspective, NAKA has declined roughly 78.8% since the last time I covered it in September 2025. In any event, we just need to update (using NAKA’s dashboard ) their Bitcoin holdings to 5.765, and their fully diluted shares to 511 million. Likewise, we need to account for the added $203 million loan from Two Prime. Lastly, at the time of this writing, NAKA’s share price is around $0.95 per share. Thus, I estimate a market cap of $485.5 million. And if we simply add its debt, we get an approximate enterprise value of $688.5 million. Note their dashboard lists their EV at $684 million , so the $4.5 million difference between my figure and theirs, I’ll assume, is NAKA’s current net cash balances. Source: NAKA’s website. October 2025. Therefore, one thing stands out. Their current market cap already represents a massive pullback from their market cap back in September 2025 $3.0 billion . So, from this angle alone, I think it’s fair to say the premium in their valuation I flagged at the time has largely evaporated. But also, when you divide their EV by their Bitcoin market value, it actually starts to look relatively compelling. Bitcoin trades at approximately $110.5 thousand today, so that means NAKA has around $637.0 million worth of that crypto. Since their legacy operations and other assets are negligible, that implies a very reasonable EV/Bitcoin (mNAV) of 1.07. Moreover, I think it’s worth highlighting that B. Riley Securities also began coverage of NAKA earlier this month. Their initial rating was a “Buy”, with a price target of $2.00. They grouped NAKA with other digital asset treasury firms (DATCOs), such as Bitmine Immersion Technologies ( BMNR ), SharpLink Gaming ( SBET ), FG Nexus ( FGNX ), and Sequans Communications ( SQNS ), all of them with a buy rating. And their thesis is essentially that DATCOs can be more opportunistic and potentially amplify crypto returns during bullish cycles. And, coupled with NAKA’s much more compelling valuation, I think it makes for a good speculative “Buy” at these levels. Source: Seeking Alpha Charts. Naturally, there are still uncertainties related to the Nasdaq’s actual enforcement of its new rules. It’s possible they may be much more stringent than anticipated, which could severely constrain DATCOs like NAKA considerably. Also, if, for whatever reason, NAKA’s upcoming December shareholder meeting declined more crypto purchases, it could derail their accumulation strategy. NAKA would be forced to rely on internally generated funds from its legacy operations to try and accumulate much smaller amounts of Bitcoin. Lastly, we don’t know yet exactly what their cash burn will be going forward post-merger, so we have to wait for their next update. But since they do have an approved $5.0 billion ATM , I wouldn’t consider that aspect a major risk factor at this time. Conclusion: Improved Risk-Reward Equation Overall, NAKA’s risk-reward profile has greatly improved since the last time I covered them. I no longer believe they have a substantial premium embedded in the shares. There are still some macro and regulatory variables that could affect them, like the Nasdaq and the price of Bitcoin itself. But other than that, I feel this is a good price level to start accumulating NAKA shares if you’re also bullish on Bitcoin for the long term. In that sense, I rate NAKA a viable speculative “Buy” after its recent sell-off.

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