Traders on Wall Street are already repositioning ahead of Tesla’s third quarter earnings report, scheduled for release Wednesday after market close. This is a gut check on margins, post-incentive demand, and whether Robotaxis are still a pipe dream or a near-term reality. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq brushing up against fresh highs, and tariffs on auto imports still stuck at 25%, the stakes are heavier than ever. Tesla stock staged a ridiculous comeback at the end of Q3, clawing back all its early 2025 losses. That rally came off optimism around the company’s AI push, a record quarter in deliveries, and a sudden political ceasefire between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Still, plenty of traders are asking if this bounce has legs, especially with U.S. economic growth slowing and EV demand getting squeezed by rising prices and disappearing tax breaks. Investors monitor tax credit fallout and profit margin impact The big headline number for the quarter is Tesla’s expected $26.27 billion in revenue, according to Bloomberg, a 4% surge from the $25.18 billion booked this time last year. Analysts are projecting adjusted earnings per share at $0.53, with EBITDA pegged at $3.78 billion. But most of those gains came before the Sept. 30 expiration of the federal EV tax credit. That’s key. Buyers rushed to close deals before the incentive vanished, which helped Tesla post 497,099 deliveries, its highest quarterly total ever. That delivery figure blew past Wall Street’s estimate of 439,800, and even beat the 462,890 cars shipped in Q3 last year. Energy storage also hit a new record, with 12.5 gigawatt-hours deployed. But that sales momentum might not hold. Elon already warned during Q2 that the end of EV credits would bring “a few rough quarters.” The real test starts now. To respond, Tesla rolled out cheaper “Standard” trims for its Model 3 and Model Y in early October. They’re stripped down with smaller batteries, rear-wheel drive, and fewer features. Price tags: $36,990 for the 3, and $39,990 for the Y. Whether that helps shore up demand without destroying margins is the key unknown. Robotaxi rollout and shareholder meeting take center stage Meanwhile, eyes are locked on what Tesla says about its Robotaxi roadmap. The company began testing autonomous ride-hailing in Austin during summer and expanded the coverage area weeks later, but those cars still have a human safety driver onboard. In California’s Bay Area, Tesla has also been running similar tests, though those rides are fully human-driven for now. Local officials aren’t thrilled, and the company’s next moves in Nevada and Arizona remain unofficial. Analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on the autonomy story. In a note to clients, he wrote, “We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla’s growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here. It starts with autonomous, then robotics, as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years.” Barclays analyst Dan Levy called Robotaxis the “most central aspect” of Tesla’s growth pitch, and said investor focus now is on when safety drivers will be removed in Austin. Nancy Tengler, a longtime Tesla investor and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, told Yahoo Finance that investors will also press for updates on Cybercab and Optimus robot production, both supposedly headed for 2026 ramp-ups. Another flashpoint: the Nov. 6 shareholder meeting. Tengler said “a key focus” will be Elon’s new $1 trillion pay package. That proposal has drawn fire. Proxy firms ISS and Glass Lewis have already recommended shareholders vote it down. Meanwhile, Elon’s current comp plan is still tied up in Delaware court, after a judge agreed with shareholders who said the board didn’t give them enough info before approving it. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.
