Summary Bitcoin is following historical price cycles, with a likely bear market bottom projected for September or October 2026. BTC's current bear market may see a shallower decline, potentially bottoming around $38k, reflecting increased adoption and ETF demand. A bullish divergence on the weekly RSI, similar to 2022, could signal a compelling long entry point for BTC. Dollar cost averaging into BTC or ETFs like IBIT is favored, while tactical positioning in WNTR is maintained until a bottom is confirmed. It looks like Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) price action is playing out similarly to the previous price cycles. Bitcoin's price tends to rally for about three years. This is followed by a bear market that lasts about one year. I pointed out in my December article that Bitcoin likely peaked for this price cycle . This was based on the consistency of the length of each price cycle. The last two price cycles lasted 1,064 days from the price bottom to the peak . The recent price cycle, which peaked in October 2025, lasted approximately the same time from the price bottom to the top. So, that means that the current bear market will probably bottom in September or October of 2026. This would mark about one year from the price peak. Bitcoin's Weekly Chart Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) Weekly Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Bitcoin's weekly chart above shows the current price in its 2nd bear flag formation since the peak price of $126k was hit in October 2025. The price did rally from about $60k up to about $83k within the flag formation of this move. Now, it looks like the price is heading back down to the support area of the flag, which is in the low $70s. A weekly close below this level would likely lead to the next leg down in this bear market. However, it is possible that the price rallies off of this support zone with a prolonging of the bear flag formation. There are really only about 4 or 5 months remaining in the current bear market. This is if the current bear market follows the consistent patterns of past price cycles. Of course, there is no guarantee that the current bear market will last for a similar period of time. The price cycles have been relatively consistent so far. The last bear market ended at the end of 2022 after a bullish divergence formed on the weekly chart. This occurred when the price made a lower low. At the same time, the RSI indicator made a higher low. The bearish divergence occurred from June 2022 to November/December 2022. It is possible that a similar bearish divergence occurs again in the bottoming process of this bear market. A bearish divergence would occur in this bear market if Bitcoin's price dropped below $60k, forming a lower low. Then, the RSI would form a higher low. Bitcoin did reach an oversold level when it hit $60k. Bitcoin also reached an oversold level in June 2022 when the price hit about $18k. Back in 2022, Bitcoin proceeded to drop to about $15k, making a lower low. At the same time, the RSI formed a higher low just above the oversold area. It looks highly probable that Bitcoin's price and the RSI form a similar bullish divergence. If it does, it would be a good time to buy Bitcoin, in my opinion. This would likely mark the bottom of the current bear market. Bullish Divergence from 2022 Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) Weekly Chart Highlighting the 2022 Bottom w/ RSI & MACD (Trading View) Bitcoin's weekly chart above provides a better view of the 2022 bullish divergence. See how the price dropped from $18k to $15k while the RSI made a higher low. The MACD also made a higher low during that time, which reinforced the bullish divergence. Investors should watch for a possible similar setup over the next few months. While I don't know how low bitcoin's price may go. My educated guess is that it could drop to about $38k. This would be a 70% decline from the peak price of $126k. The reason why I picked 70% is that each price cycle's bear market tends to be shallower than the previous one. The last price cycle bottomed after a 78% drop. The cycle before that suffered an approximate 85% decline. So, this price cycle will probably experience a drop that is less than the 78% drop from the previous cycle. The reason for the shallower declines could be due to more widespread demand for bitcoin as an investment as time goes on. Now, the adoption of bitcoin ETFs makes participating in crypto investing easy for investors, pushing demand higher. Strategy for the Bottoming Process Bitcoin has proven to be a strong asset so far over the long term. There are no guarantees that this will continue, but bitcoin has increased significantly in value since its inception in 2009. The long-term bull case is that it has a finite supply of 21 million coins that will ever be mined. Investor demand pushes the price up over the long term. Investors gave the name 'digital gold' to Bitcoin. As long as investors give bitcoin value as a store of value (similar to gold), the demand should put upward pressure on the price over time. With that in mind, a simple strategy for the next few months of a bitcoin bottoming process can involve dollar cost averaging. Investors can buy bitcoin every week or every month to build a position at prices that are much lower than the all-time high. There is no guesswork involved. This strategy takes emotion out of trying to buy at the exact bottom, which could be difficult. We may not get the bullish divergence that I think may happen. Another option is to dollar cost average into a bitcoin ETF such as iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ), which I last wrote about back in February 2026 . More daring investors might consider building a position into Strategy ( MSTR ), which is highly levered to Bitcoin. I have actually been holding the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF ( WNTR ). The reason for holding WNTR during bitcoin's bear market is due to the ETF's high yield and weekly distributions and its bearish bitcoin bias. I plan on switching my WNTR position to a long-bitcoin position when I am comfortable that a likely bottom is near or here. I will provide an updated article when I believe the bottom is in.
