Summary $60,000 is the key “fault line” for Bitcoin: A sustained break below it could quickly escalate volatility rather than produce a normal correction. Deribit options positioning adds downside pressure: about $1.24B in open interest on $60k puts means dealers may hedge by selling BTC/futures as price approaches that level. Below $60k, cascade risk increases: the 200-week MA near ~$58k, BTC-backed loan liquidations, and leveraged position liquidations can combine into forced selling that accelerates the drop (with $50k highlighted as the next major zone of put interest). By Krzysztof Kamiński $60,000 as the market’s flashpoint level In the Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) market, it is becoming increasingly clear that the area around $60,000 serves as both a psychological and technical “front line.” A move below this level could trigger not only a standard correction, but also a sharp rise in volatility driven by the mechanics of derivatives and BTC-collateralized financing. In other words, near $60,000, multiple factors overlap that, if broken to the downside, can turn a price decline into a cascade of forced transactions. Big bets positioned for a drop below $60,000 One key source of risk is positioning in the options market. On Deribit, there is a strong concentration of puts at the $60,000 strike, with open interest in these instruments reaching roughly $1.24 billion. This market structure matters not because it “guarantees” a decline, but because as the price approaches $60,000, it can force hedging activity from option writers. As risk rises, put sellers often reduce exposure by selling BTC or futures contracts, increasing selling pressure precisely when the market is most sensitive. Bitcoin Open Interest by strike price across all expiries, source: Bloomberg Lower technical support: The 200-week moving average around $58,000 Just below $60,000 there is an additional reference point for some investors: the 200-week moving average, estimated around $58,000. In practice, this means that once $60,000 is broken, the market may quickly test the next technical support. If demand does not respond fast enough, the very fact of the price “sliding” downward can deepen nervousness and accelerate the move. Weekly BTC time chart, source: TradingView BTC-collateralized loans: A forced-selling mechanism Another part of the puzzle is Bitcoin-backed lending. In many financing structures, a drop in price toward specific thresholds triggers automatic actions by the lender—most often the sale of the collateral. This forced selling acts like fuel for declines: as the price falls, additional supply appears not because investors choose to sell, but because of risk-management procedures. Importantly, this mechanism is particularly dangerous when it overlaps with a derivatives market already burdened with heavy positioning. Leverage and liquidations: How a drop can feed on itself In a highly leveraged environment, a price decline quickly worsens collateral metrics in investors’ accounts. When margin no longer meets requirements, positions are forcibly closed, generating another wave of selling and boosting volatility. In this way, the market can enter a “self-fulfilling” sell-off. Selling causes the price to fall, and falling prices trigger further liquidations. In the past, similar episodes ended with a rapid unwinding of risk as billions of dollars’ worth of bullish bets were wiped out. Sentiment and scenarios: From a bounce to a move down toward $50,000 Recent weeks suggest that the $60,000 level is being genuinely tested: on February 6, Bitcoin dipped into this zone and then bounced, and on Friday in New York, it was trading around $67,000, while still notably below its earlier peak. Some market participants emphasize short-term pessimism, visible both in commentary and in hedging structures. In this context, forecast revisions also matter - Standard Chartered lowered its end-2026 target to $100,000, allowing for a drop as low as $50,000 along the way before stabilization. The area around $50,000 is also the next zone of clear put interest. What this puzzle implies The $60,000 level is not important solely because it “looks nice” in headlines. Its significance comes from the overlap of several layers of risk: concentrated options positioning, potential hedging activity, threshold levels in BTC-collateralized loans, and the mechanics of leverage and liquidations. If the price remains above $60,000, the market may function relatively stably despite jittery sentiment. But if there is a sustained breakdown below it, there is a risk that selling pressure will not be a one-off impulse, but rather a sequence of events in which successive market segments force additional trades - raising volatility and deepening the price move. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
