This week’s events will be shaped by war, inflation data, jobs numbers, and major earnings. The biggest geopolitical story is the war in Iran after the United States and Israel attacked on Feb. 28, setting off strikes across the Middle East and around international military bases in the region. That put the G7 under pressure at the start of the week. The group includes the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The alliance was already under strain during both terms of President Donald Trump. Now the pressure is even higher. France, which currently holds the G7 presidency, has called an emergency meeting to deal with the Middle East crisis. Finance Minister Roland Lescure said finance ministers and central bank governors from the group will meet over the coming days. Roland told Franceinfo radio: “I have spoken to various counterparts, in particular [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent … to discuss the state of the situation, so we can assess any responses that might be needed.” Oil prices drive this week’s events across markets and central banks Last week, the main market story was the war in Iran and the jump in oil prices. U.S. crude, tracked by CL=F, posted its biggest weekly gain since at least 1985. By Friday, it had surged more than 36% and traded above $91 as the conflict moved toward the one-week mark. Brent crude, tracked by BZ=F, also posted large gains. Traders were focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping chokepoint for the oil trade. That is bad timing for the Federal Reserve . The Fed had already seen its rate-cut progress stall after its campaign against post-COVID inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield, ^TNX, has climbed back above 4.14%. At the same time, traders have cut back rate-cut bets this week as they price in the risk that higher oil could slow progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. Investors track this week’s events in inflation data, jobs data, and earnings The biggest economic events land on Wednesday and Friday. Wednesday brings the Consumer Price Index. Friday brings the personal consumption expenditures report, which is one of the Fed’s key inflation gauges. Friday also brings a long list of other data. The January PCE price index is expected at +0.3% month on month, after +0.4% previously, and +2.9% year on year, unchanged from the prior reading. Core PCE is seen at +0.4% month on month, unchanged, and +3.1% year on year, up from +3.0%. Personal income is expected at +0.5% after +0.3%. Personal spending is seen at +0.3% after +0.4%. Durable goods orders are expected at +0.4% after -1.4%. GDP, annualized quarter on quarter for the fourth quarter, is expected at 1.4%, unchanged. Labor and sentiment data are also part of this week’s events after a weak February jobs report. Friday will bring the JOLTS job openings rate, previously 3.9%, the quits rate, previously 2.0%, and the layoffs rate, previously 1.1%. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment reading for March is expected at 56.3, down from 56.6. Current conditions were previously 56.6. Expectations were also 56.6. One-year inflation expectations were previously +3.4%, while the five- to ten-year measure stood at +3.3%. On the corporate side, Oracle reports Tuesday and is the main earnings event of the week after strong Nvidia results failed to satisfy investors. Adobe, Hewlett Packard, Dollar General, and DICK’S Sporting Goods will also report during the week. Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program
