Summary I'm bullish on MARA due to its industry-leading hash rate, strong Bitcoin holdings, and direct leverage to Bitcoin's price appreciation. Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and the US Spot Bitcoin ETF support my $200,000 Bitcoin price target by 2030, directly benefiting MARA. MARA's energy independence and efficient mining operations drive profitability, while its undervalued P/S ratio offers significant upside potential. With a projected price target of $37.07 by 2026, I see over 133% upside and reiterate my buy rating despite Bitcoin volatility risks. Introduction & Investment Thesis I am bullish on MARA Holdings, Inc. ( MARA ), driven by Bitcoin’s price estimate of $200,000 by 2030. Before I arrived at this angle, I first went to look at the company’s standing in terms of bitcoin mining. What I am finding is that in the latest quarter, MARA’s Q2’2025 bitcoin mining increased by 3% YoY to 2,358 BTC. This increase was seen after an increased hash rate of 6%, from 54.3 EH/s in Q1’2025 to 57.4 EH/s. This indicates that the company has high computational power dedicated to mining and securing more blockchain in Bitcoin. After examining MARA’s edge in Bitcoin mining, I also notice that its revenues in Q2’2025 increased by 64% YoY to $238.5 million. Moreover, the company’s net income surged by a whopping 505% YoY to $808 million, driven by gains in Bitcoin appreciation . Between April 2025 and June 2025, Bitcoin appreciated from $76,000 to $110,000, representing a 44.74% gain, which contributed to MARA’s gain. Therefore, looking at the historical price returns of BTC and MARA, I find that as Bitcoin gains, MARA revenues soar even after recording a minimal revenue increase YoY, as seen in Q2’2025. Seeking Alpha This prompts me to find out what is there for MARA in BTC price projection reaching $200,000 by 2030. Given my thesis above, I will now delve into why I believe BTC performance will influence MARA profitability in the future, which is why I am rating this ticker as a buy. Company Brief MARA Holdings provides technology solutions that optimize data center operations, such as firmware for Bitcoin miners and liquid immersion cooling. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Hallandale Beach, Florida. The Market Outlook Before I explain how MARA is positioning itself to maintain a consistent mining capability to make the most from the Bitcoin gain, let me get to what makes this $200,000 price seem close by 2030. Firstly, one of the drivers is the creation of value from the institutional adoption. A good example is the Trump administration's executive order creating a leeway for American citizens to invest in Bitcoin as their retirement plans, since it’s already classified among the US store of value . Over 90 million Americans who did not have an opportunity to participate in digital assets directly through their retirement plans can now access this alternative investment programme. Government involvement in Bitcoin invokes confidence in Bitcoin as a digital asset, which could suggest that there is potential upside from this institutional optimism. Also, when I look at the US Spot Bitcoin ETF that was launched in 2024, which opened access to institutional Bitcoin capital, it has so far generated around $5 billion to $10 billion daily on active days by Q3’2025. Secondly, regulatory clarity around US crypto is undergoing a significant shift. For instance, the GENIUS Act , which was signed into law on July 18, 2025, regulates stablecoin payments. After the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for the US), jurisdictional ambiguities that limited access to Bitcoin have been resolved. Following the Act, the federal regime payment of stablecoin requires reporting 100% of their reserve banking and monthly disclosures. This regulatory initiative aims to improve trust in digital coins such as Bitcoin. Still on Bitcoin gaining leverage and a store of value, I am also looking at it from an angle of possible crypto credit cards driven by halving, which is managing its inflation and scarcity to shape its long-term value. I previously introduced the executive order requiring organizations to start considering alternative stores of value, a trend that is evident in 2025 Bitcoin ownership, where businesses continue owning most Bitcoins. River MARA’s Position In Bitcoin Optimism Now, with this picture in mind, I will explain to you how I see MARA positioning itself for this gain in Bitcoin value. I am looking at this from two angles, including its edge in bitcoin mining capability and how it is gaining as Bitcoin gains in value. Let’s begin with its edge in Bitcoin mining. MARA has an edge at its current 54.3 EH/s to 57.4 EH/s. This makes MARA a leading company in terms of hash rate, which means that it has a high chance of being the first company to solve new blocks. Having a high hash rate shows that MARA’s computational power is higher than its competitors, and this makes it capable of solving complex mathematical problems much faster. Bitcoin Mining stock.io Energy consumption is a major concern affecting earnings rewards in Bitcoin mining, but MARA has insulated itself from this cost by transitioning power reliance to its own power production. The company now owns 114W wind power in Texas, which adds up to 70% of its total fleet that it owns and operates. This energy independence is a major driver of more profit margins that would be consumed by power volatility. As of Q2’2025, the company increased its mining fleet by 26% YoY , which consumes around 18.3 J/TH, which is among the industry’s lowest. MARA remains a leading Bitcoin miner compared to its competitors on a month-by-month basis, which is a good leverage point as the Bitcoin price shows a high chance of an upside. Cointelegram.com Now, this brings me to my second view on how MARA will benefit from Bitcoin gain trading, aiming to reach $200,000 by 2030. Recall that in my investment thesis, I demonstrated how the price return trajectory of BTC causes a similar trajectory in MARA Holdings’ price return. For example, on June 30, 2024, BTC was trading at $62,668, and the value has increased to $111,358 currently. This continuous increase in Bitcoin has a significant impact on MARA as it continues to mine more Bitcoins and hold them compared to competitors’ selling rate. The Miner Mag I believe MARA is maintaining this holding strategy, looking up to the projected Bitcoin gains demonstrated above. The hint that directs my thought process along this perspective is the recent Q2’2025 , which reported a substantial net income of $808.2 million from a loss of $199.7 million in Q2’2024. This gain was driven by the increase in Bitcoin’s fair value of $1.2 billion from its Bitcoin holding as the price of Bitcoin gained during the quarter. Financials And Valuation In the last 5 years, MARA revenue growth YoY has been averaging above 100%, but 2022 was an exception when the revenue growth was -26.02% due to a sharp decline in Bitcoin, which was selling at $16,400 at the time, from $64,800. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has been increasing, and this is equally portrayed in MARA’s revenues, which have been beyond double digits. Stock Analysis When you look at the revenue growth YoY, FY2023 saw an increase of 229.08% but has been going down to the current TTM of 41.32%, and I am equating this to increasing Bitcoin network difficulty, value, and hash price. The company is addressing this through increasing its hash rate, which currently stands at 57.4 EH/s, and moving away from the national grid to its own wind power generation. As a result, the company has become the leading Bitcoin miner and holds the most Bitcoins. This is an edge that MARA has to leverage to capitalize on the increase in Bitcoin price. Let’s move to profitability. In the same timeframe, the company’s profitability has regained significantly from a loss of $694.022 million in FY2022 due to Bitcoin’s loss in value. Since then, as Bitcoin regained its value, the company’s profitability has been on an uptrend, with the current TTM net income at $678.78 million. The company Stock Analysis Moving on to valuation, I will use the P/S ratio metric to compare that of its competitors, Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT ) and Hut 8 Corp. (NASDAQ: HUT ). MARA, with a P/S ratio of 6.63x, is undervalued, given its high hash rate of 57.4 EH/s. Compared to MARA's hash rate, which is a major driver in accessing more Bitcoin blockchains, the latest hash rate for RIOT is 35.4 EH/s with a P/S ratio of 8.26x, and HUT’s hash rate is 9.3 EH/s at a P/S ratio of 19.43x. This shows how much the market has undervalued MARA. Seeking Alpha I am also learning that even without selling its Bitcoins, MARA maintains a positive revenue growth YoY of 41.32% compared to RIOT, which is selling its Bitcoins and currently remaining with 19,287 BTC at revenue YoY growth of 93.46%. On the other side, HUT, which has held its Bitcoins, has a revenue YoY of -5.64%. This means that if MARA were to sell its Bitcoins now, it would probably record the highest revenue growth YoY, but instead it holds them for future value, discussed above, and this is why I reiterate my bullish rating. Even with the company’s holding strategy to potentially benefit from high prices, I see a significant upside potential here. To estimate my price target by 2026, I will start by projecting the company’s financial performance by the said year. In my estimations, I will assume a revenue growth rate of 55% for 2025 and 35% for 2026. This reflects its holding initiative while maintaining strong growth. For profitability, I expect its net income to expand slightly from 2024's 82.46% to about 86% in 2026. With these assumptions, I am arriving at an estimated revenue of $1.37 billion by 2026, which is very close to the consensus estimates of $1.33 billion. Considering the company’s undervaluation, I believe the company will reward this company with a better P/S as the Bitcoin value keeps growing, which, as demonstrated earlier, leads to a higher price for this stock. For this reason, I will assume a forward P/S of 10x. This is between its peers, which represents my optimism and the fact that MARA may not fetch a higher PS than HUT, which has stronger sales growth because it’s liquidating most of its Bitcoins. With these assumptions, I am projecting a price of about $37.07 per share by 2026, marking an upside potential of more than 133%. Given this potential alpha, I think my buy recommendation is justified. FPP (Author) Investment risks Volatility of Bitcoin – Bitcoin’s volatility means that in a massive bearish market, it would significantly downgrade its held Bitcoins, which would minimize its revenues. Increasing hash rate – Maintaining a hash rate above 50 EH/s will require MARA to continually upgrade its infrastructure and energy sourcing, which would continue to eat up its mining rewards, thus reducing overall revenues. Conclusion I am reiterating my buy rating on MARA, driven by its high Bitcoin holding and hash rate of 57.4EH/s. The Bitcoin mining industry is still not yet exhausted, and given its edge in mining and the projected increase in Bitcoin value, the company stands in a better position to gain.
