Crypto options platform Derive says the chances of Ethereum (ETH) hitting $5K by Dec 27 is less than 10%, falling from previous projections. The altcoin leader continues its sideways trading despite glimpses of a forward run through multiple resistance. Lower market sentiments have affected bulls significantly, as shown in recent whale movements out of the ecosystem. New market data released by the firm shows dwindling confidence for a $5K resistance level break. Currently, traders believe it only has an 8% chance of hitting the market despite increasing inflows to spot Ethereum ETFs . Steve Dawson, Derive’s head of research, noted a 17% chance of tapping the mark at its peak. Frequent price grips and corrections lowered Ethereum’s chances of hitting $5K. ETH stands at $3,702 at press time, 35% away from the much-anticipated target. Unlike Bitcoin and other altcoins like Solana , institutional flows didn’t help ETH this year. Ethereum Bulls May Defy Odds Although the price target is far up for most users, Ethereum Bulls projects a massive uptrend based on swinging macro factors. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), ETH contributor Eric Conner flagged the increasing inflow into ETH ETFs, tipping a supply-side crisis. Similarly, a crypto trader, Pentosh, noted that the network is changing in terms of inflow with little resistance to a new all-time high. “ Much like this thread with BTC, $ETH is having structural changes as well as the beginning of consistent and large ETF flows. It just put in a HH, and had it’s highest weekly close of the year. There is a not much resistance from here to ath, which should act as a magnet. Above that is clear skies,” he added. Investors Can Drive Optimism Although Ethereum has traded below expectations compared to standings with other altcoins , recent inflows could be a catalyst for growth in 2025. Last week, the asset’s funds saw the largest institutional flows, beating July’s high when spot ETH ETFs were approved. Data from CoinShares show products picked up $1.2 billion in inflows, a wide margin from other altcoins. A key point for institutional traders remains its staking capability and DeFi numbers. As crypto and web3 adoption soars, DeFi TVL is expected to hit new highs, driving investment in the space.
