Summary VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) remains a Hold, while direct BTC-USD is a Buy due to lower costs and better long-term return prospects. BTC-USD is at a pivotal resistance/support level, showing increasing characteristics of a store of value and correlation with gold. Debate persists over bitcoin's intrinsic value, but evidence from sovereign and corporate adoption supports its legitimacy as a store of value. HODL's 0.20% expense ratio erodes returns over time, making direct bitcoin ownership more attractive despite HODL's marginal edge over IBIT. The VanEck Bitcoin ETF ( HODL ) is down about 9% from the time of my previous article , from $21.72 at publication to the current $19.82. Not a major drop by bitcoin standards per se, but the drawdown since early October 2025 was a much more severe 44%. Data by YCharts There's been some eleventh-hour recovery post-market, with the price popping back slightly to where it stands now at just under $20. Why You Need to Pay Attention to BTC-USD There's a pretty big list of theories floating around for why bitcoin lost this much ground since Q4 2025, but what it all distils down to - and this is my opinion - is that bitcoin is slowly and painfully establishing a very realistic intrinsic value. In spite of seeing their 'hodlings' buffeted in either direction by economic and political forces, investors in Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) have seen and are seeing their assets grow over time, and that's the reality of it. SA I've smoothed out the volatility in bitcoin price by using a log scale, and one thing's for sure. There's something important about the current level that shows up when you zoom in to the period from the 2021 pandemic-driven highs to date. SA That puts bitcoin's current price right around a major inflection point that's acted as resistance and support in the past, and could now be a key support level. It could also act as a resistance level if the price slips further, and that's where we'll see some proof of what I'm assuming. First things first. The digital elephant in the room. What's All This (Non)Sense About Intrinsic Value? If there was ever a hard line that divided investors on the value and relevance of bitcoin, it's this sensitive topic. On the 'yea' side of the fence is the argument - among many others - that both gold and bitcoin satisfy similar conditions: the finite absolute quantity that leads to capped availability that leads to perceived scarcity that leads to demand creation that leads to intrinsic value. Logically sound and irrefutable for the most part, the only difference being one is shiny but heavy, while the other can literally be carried around in your head as a seed phrase, with no physical evidence of its digital existence. Data by YCharts There's also a similarity where pricing's concerned. Bitcoin is behaving like an amplified version of gold, with much higher highs and much lower lows, but both are trending very similarly. Over the past 5 years, bitcoin's up a modest 40% against gold's 125% price jump. Sure, the early days of bitcoin's struggle to find intrinsic value saw a lot more volatility, but that's a good thing because that's all in the past, and we're at a point in time now where bitcoin's value is starting to behave like that of an SoV asset, a store of value. Something to think about. I'm not ignoring the fact that it's still too volatile to be a reliable store of value, but it's getting there, and we're at a potentially pivotal point in its price journey. The 'nay' side of the fence is home to the equally strong argument that bitcoin is neither physical like gold and land, nor does it produce a cash flow, and is therefore not possessing of intrinsic value. Often put forward by crypto bears is the Greater Fool Theory as the sole reason bitcoin is worth anything. Again, logically sound and irrefutable for the most part, if you define intrinsic value that way. A Convergence of Realities Both sides can't be right, but this diametrically opposed pair of viewpoints seem to be establishing a middle ground where bitcoin can exist as an alternate value of store, and even aspiring to be a globally accepted mainstream reserve asset. If value is what someone's willing to pay for 'it' with an already-established reserve asset like fiat currency, then 'it' has value. It doesn't matter if it's not generating cash flows. Land doesn't, and gold doesn't, but neither of them are dismissed as non-investable. All that seems to matter is that bitcoin is being treated like a store of value, which makes it a store of value in every practical sense. So, is it just the flimsy reason of price correlation to gold that's holding up the case for bitcoin? That's a question I hope you'll ask, because your decision to invest in bitcoin at this time, either using HODL or directly in bitcoin, is a crucial one. If it does have intrinsic value, if it does have store-of-value-like characteristics, if it's already begun to be treated as legitimate legal tender or a permissible payment method in the grander scheme of the global digital economy, then what I said stands true: it's showing all the signs of an emerging SoV and deserves your investment dollars. If you're looking for even more evidence of this, just look at sovereign reserves and corporate treasuries . Here are three separate pieces of evidence that suggest that's true. Bleap.Finance BitcoinTreasuries DB Research On the whole, the prospects for BTC-USD to go up from this key resistance/support level near $70,000 are looking very positive. The Finishing Twist Now, it might sound like that makes a strong case for HODL, but it doesn't. That's because what you're paying the fund managers (not to mention other expenses and fees) for is costing you quite a bit, and that's clearly visible in the price return variance between BTC-USD and HODL since the ETF's inception. SA The expense ratio of 0.20% might look low, but the long-term impact on your returns is not negligible. SA HODL is still marginally better than iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ), but a direct BTC-USD holding makes better sense over an indirect 'hodling'. Still a Hold for HODL but a Buy for BTC-USD.
