Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds Key Support as Correlation With Stocks Grows

NYDIG argued that Bitcoin’s latest move alongside U.S. software stocks does not prove the asset has turned into a software equity proxy. In its March 6 weekly research note, the firm said Bitcoin’s rising 90 day correlations are not limited to software shares. Instead, they also extend to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which points to broader macro and liquidity conditions rather than a direct tie to one sector. Bitcoin Correlation Rise Looks Broader Than Software Stocks The chart shared by NYDIG shows Bitcoin’s 90 day rolling correlation with the S&P North American Software Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and NYSE Semiconductor Index mostly moving in a similar range from June 2025 into early February 2026. Around late August, all four correlations dropped sharply, then recovered through the fourth quarter. By early February, Bitcoin’s correlation with software stocks stood near the top of the group, but the broader equity links also remained elevated. Source: Bloomberg, NYDIG. The visual suggests Bitcoin moved with risk assets more broadly, not with software names alone. BTC 90 Day Correlation With Equity Indices. Source: Bloomberg,NYD The firm said Bitcoin’s correlation with software equities increased after the early October all time high, but so did its correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. At the same time, NYDIG noted that Bitcoin’s link to semiconductor stocks weakened in 2026 even as correlations with broader equities and software moved higher. According to the note, that pattern weakens the claim that Bitcoin is trading on software specific themes such as AI or quantum risk alone. NYDIG said the cleaner explanation is that Bitcoin is trading like a high beta, liquidity sensitive growth asset in the current macro environment. The note added that Bitcoin is not behaving like a macro hedge, inflation hedge, or gold substitute right now. Even so, NYDIG also argued that equities still explain only part of Bitcoin’s moves. It said a 0.5 correlation implies an R squared near 0.25, meaning about one quarter of price movement would be explained by a single equity factor, while the rest still comes from Bitcoin specific drivers such as fund flows, network activity, positioning, and policy developments. So, the main takeaway is narrower than the recent social media claim. Bitcoin has been moving more closely with equities, and the chart supports that. However, NYDIG’s data and commentary suggest the relationship is broad based across major stock benchmarks, not proof that Bitcoin has become a software stock in disguise. Bitcoin Tests Two Year High Volume Trading Zone Meanwhile, the chart shared by Daan Crypto Trades shows Bitcoin trading inside the largest volume area formed over the past two years. The volume profile on the right highlights where the most trading activity occurred. The thickest cluster sits around the current level marked by the horizontal green line. Bitcoin Two Year Volume Profile Support. Source: Daan Crypto Trades on X This zone stands out because more Bitcoin changed hands here than at any other price during the period shown. When price returns to such areas, markets often slow because many previous positions exist there. As a result, the region can act as a balance point where buyers and sellers interact more actively. The broader chart structure shows Bitcoin rising to higher levels before moving back toward this heavy volume node. After the previous rally, price declined and returned to the area where the market previously spent the most time trading. That historical activity now makes the level an important structural zone on the chart. The volume profile also shows thinner trading areas above the current range. Those sections represent price zones where less historical volume accumulated. When price moves into these areas, the path can become smoother because fewer previous positions exist to slow movement. According to DaanCryptoTrades, the current zone may allow Bitcoin to stabilize and form a range. The recent candles near the high volume node show smaller movements, which often appear when markets pause after a strong trend. However, the chart also highlights a nearby resistance level. If Bitcoin moves above the upper boundary of the volume cluster near the $72,000 area and holds it, the structure shows lighter historical volume toward the low $80,000 range. That configuration means price could move more freely once it exits the current high volume zone.