BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin has already formed its cycle bottom near $60,000 and is positioned to retest its previous peak near $126,000 as global credit conditions shift in favor of scarce digital assets. In a new essay titled The Butterfly Touch, Hayes argued that the next Bitcoin rally will be driven less by short-term trading signals and more by large macro forces. He pointed to rising artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, war-related government expenditure, commodity stockpiling, and credit expansion in both U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan. Hayes said Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 earlier this year marked the end of its correction phase. He also said a move back above $126,000 is likely if liquidity continues expanding and risk appetite returns to crypto markets. Bitcoin recently traded near $80,875 after recovering from its April lows. The asset has held above several short-term support zones, while traders watch whether it can break through resistance between $86,500 and $90,900. Arthur Hayes Links Bitcoin Rally to AI and War Spending Hayes’ latest Bitcoin forecast is based on the view that governments, banks, and corporations are entering another large credit cycle. He said artificial intelligence infrastructure is one of the main forces behind that shift. Large technology firms and governments are spending heavily on data centers, semiconductors, electricity networks, and computing infrastructure. Hayes argued that this investment cycle will require more lending, more government support, and looser credit conditions over time. He also linked Bitcoin’s outlook to geopolitical instability. Rising defense budgets, disrupted supply chains, and competition for critical commodities are pushing countries to increase spending on security and infrastructure. According to Hayes, these conditions tend to weaken the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. He said Bitcoin and other crypto assets may benefit because they sit outside traditional sovereign debt systems and have limited supply. Hayes also said China and the United States are likely to support credit growth through different policy tools. He views that expansion as a source of future liquidity for crypto markets. $90,000 Level Seen as Next Trigger Hayes said Bitcoin clearing $90,000 could become an important trigger for stronger upside momentum. He argued that a move above that level may force short sellers and options traders to adjust positions, adding more demand to the market. Current technical levels show Bitcoin holding a recovery structure after rebounding from the $65,000 area. The price has formed higher lows and higher highs, keeping short-term momentum in favor of buyers. Bitcoin is testing the $80,646 to $80,875 area. A daily close above this zone could support a move toward the next resistance near $86,549. Source: X The wider resistance band sits between $86,500 and $90,900. This zone may attract selling because it marks a prior supply area where traders could take profit. On the downside, the first support level sits near $79,127. If Bitcoin loses that level, the price could move toward $76,604. A deeper decline could bring the $73,408 to $71,438 support area back into focus. Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s trend has not changed and that the 21-day moving average remains important. He also identified $76,000 as a support zone that bulls need to defend. Bitcoin Bull-Bear Indicator Turns Green On-chain data has also added to the market discussion. According to CryptoQuant analysis shared by Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has moved into an early bull zone for the first time since March 2023. The indicator is used to track broad market regime changes. When it moves out of bear territory and into an early bull zone, some traders read it as a sign that the worst part of a correction may have passed. Source: CryptoQuant Similar readings appeared in 2019 and early 2023 before stronger recovery phases. However, the same type of signal appeared in March 2022 before Bitcoin later continued lower, showing that confirmation from demand remains necessary. Analysts are therefore watching whether spot buyers, ETF flows, and long-term holders can absorb profit-taking near current levels. Bitcoin’s recent recovery has improved market structure, but volume has softened during the upward move. Hayes’ own track record also remains part of the market debate. He has made several bold Bitcoin forecasts in previous cycles, some of which were directionally correct but early on timing. His late-2025 call for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by year-end did not materialize.
