The “Bitcoin cycle theory is dead” is one narrative that has gained increased traction as the year has gone on, especially with the premier cryptocurrency setting multiple all-time highs since April. This hypothesis is based on the shift in the market dynamics and the entry of a new group of investors. Since the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in early 2024, the market has seen the entry of a new set of institutional players. This new trend or wave of investors is believed to have introduced some form of unpredictability to the market and price movements. Nevertheless, a market analyst on X has asked an interesting question — what will happen if the traditional four-year cycle continues? BTC Price Could Reach Cycle Top In 100 Days In an August 16 post on social media platform X, a market analyst—bearing the name of renowned American economist Frank Fetter— shared an insight into how the Bitcoin price could move if the four-year cycle continued. According to the pundit, the next 100 days could be interesting for the flagship cryptocurrency. This evaluation revolves around the Bitcoin Index Performance Since Cycle Low, which tracks the performance of the BTC price in various 4-year periods. This chart displays the cyclical nature of most financial markets, including the nascent cryptocurrency market. Fetter highlighted a Bitcoin Index Performance chart in their post, showing the movement in the past two cycles (2015 – 2018 and 2018 – 2022) and the current cycle. As shown in the chart below, the price of BTC grew by 110x in the 2015 – 2018 cycle (green line) and took 1,068 days to reach its top. Similarly, the price of Bitcoin reached the cyclical peak in 2022, 1,060 days after the cycle low in 2018. However, the premier cryptocurrency only did 21x in the 2018 – 2022 cycle (blue line), reflecting a more mature and stable market environment. In the current cycle (black line), the price of BTC is up by 7.3x from its 2022 cycle low, which was 997 days. If the traditional four-year cycle theory is still in play, it means that the market leader could be about 100 days away from reaching its price top in this cycle. From an optimistic standpoint, this means that BTC might still have one leg up before peaking. However, a continuous rally or sustained bullish momentum even after 100 days from now could spell the end of the cycle theory for the Bitcoin price. This shift in market structure could translate into longer bull runs and shorter bearish periods for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $117,625, reflecting a mere 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours.
