Summary Streamex is trying to capitalize on the real world asset tokenization opportunity by introducing a gold backed token that generates yield through leasing. While this solution is differentiated, it introduces unquantified risk, which may limit its appeal. Initial data suggests there is at least some demand, and Streamex's business model should result in strong margins with only a fairly modest amount of revenue. I expect STEX’s share price to remain under pressure though, as tokenization and revenue growth are likely to disappoint versus bullish projections. Streamex ( STEX ) is one of many companies trying to capitalize on the real-world asset tokenization opportunity. The company has chosen to initially focus on gold, with differentiation coming from the provision of yield, although this comes at the cost of counterparty risk, which isn't well understood. I don't necessarily expect this to dent demand, though, and early indicators seem to back this up. Despite this, initial tokenization volumes are insufficient to justify Streamex's current market capitalization, and I believe that there is a material risk of value capture falling short of management expectations. Revenue will begin to ramp up in the next few quarters, and margins should be fairly solid given the nature of Streamex's business. This could provide some support to the stock, but this must be weighed against fading investor interest in the tokenization narrative. As a result, I expect Streamex's stock to continue to grind lower in coming years. Market Tokenization is when a digital asset on a blockchain is used to represent a physical asset. Potential benefits of this include: Fractional trading 24/7 trading globally Instantaneous settlement Improved liquidity for illiquid assets Interest also likely stems largely from the fees that come with greater trading volumes. While the growth of tokenized assets has been strong in recent years, this has been dominated by stablecoins so far. There is growing interest in tokenizing assets like MMFs (Money Market Funds), equities, and gold, though. Streamex's initial focus is on gold, although the company appears set to try and tokenize a range of commodities over the long run. The global gold market is worth tens of trillions of dollars , and daily trading volume in gold bullion totals around 550 billion USD. The market capitalization of gold ETFs is also over 400 billion USD. While tokenization is growing rapidly, only around 6 billion USD of the gold market has been tokenized so far. Tether Gold is the leading gold token by a fairly wide margin, having grown rapidly over the past 12 months. It's worth noting that even as the leading gold token, XAUT currently only has a market capitalization of around 3 billion USD . XAUT provides token holders with allocated gold that is held by third-party custodians in Switzerland. In comparison, PAXG provides token holders with allocated gold that is held by the Paxos Trust Company and stored in LBMA-approved London vaults. As the gold is held by a trust, it is legally separate from Paxos' balance sheet, helping to remove some ambiguity in the event of bankruptcy. Despite offering a differentiated product, Streamex may find it difficult to compete with many of the larger players in the tokenization space. While asset management as an industry is fragmented, economies of scale can lead some managers to dominate their particular niches. Success is also based on distribution as much as anything, and this is likely to be an area where Streamex struggles to compete with the likes of Tether, Circle and Robinhood. Streamex BioSig Technologies merged with Streamex Exchange in May 2025 , with the combined company focusing on the tokenization of real-world assets. This transaction enabled Streamex to become a public company, and I would not attribute any value to BioSig at this point in time. GLDY is Streamex’s first RWA digital token. The GLDY token (1 GLDY = 1 fine troy oz of gold bullion) provides exposure to gold’s price along with yield (up to 4%) from leasing. GLDY avoids the costs associated with traditional gold yielding products (roll risk, option and carry costs). The token also provides a unique tax structure as a security asset, rather than a commodity. Streamex also plans on introducing similar products for other commodities, including silver, copper and oil & gas. Figure 1: Streamex Planned Product Launches (source: Streamex) Leasing occurs through Streamex's 3-year partnership with Monetary Metals. Monetary Metals lends to commercial borrowers (jewelers, refiners, miners), providing them with a reasonable cost working capital solution. This arrangement introduces counterparty risk, even though Streamex has tried to downplay this by emphasizing that it is a lease where gold ownership is retained. Jeweler's Block Insurance also provides some level of protection. There is a difference between legal title and beneficial title, though, with legal title typically given up in order to enable activities like leasing. The exact details of this are unclear, but functionally GLDY appears to be more like a structured product where token holders own a share of an SPV rather than gold. High-quality borrowers have access to prime capital markets with low single-digit percentage annual rates, and the higher yield Streamex is offering comes with unknown risk. In addition, yield isn't guaranteed, and 4% has just been mentioned as an upper bound. I don't think this will matter for retail investors, but for many more sophisticated investors, this product probably won't be appealing. Figure 2: GLDY Structure (source: Streamex) GLDY is also eligible to be held by ETFs, which could be an important source of demand. Streamex already has a letter of intent with Simplify Asset Management to integrate GLDY into ETF structures and co-develop tokenized exchange-traded products. Simplify has around 13 billion USD AUM across dozens of ETFs, most of which is related to a money market ETF. The GLDY presale commenced in November 2025, and interest has already exceeded 100 million USD, despite the fact that GLDY is currently limited to accredited investors. Streamex is also committing a minimum of 5 million USD towards GLDY and believes that issuance can be increased to 300 million USD in the near-term. GLDY was launched in late February with an initial APY of 3.5%. Streamex also has a 9.9% stake in Empress Royalty, a royalty and streaming creation company with roughly a 135 million CAD market capitalization. I view this stake as tangential to Streamex's core business, and the size of the stake means that it is of negligible value relative to Streamex's current market capitalization. Financial Analysis Streamex's revenue will come from a combination of tokenization, trading and distribution fees. Streamex has suggested that the NPV of its fees from a GLDY token over 30 years amounts to around 40% of the price of gold . If the token was actively traded, there could also be upside to this number. Depending on the assumptions made, this amounts to Streamex capturing essentially all of the lease yield, meaning investors are taking on potentially substantial risk for little upside. In terms of revenue, Streamex has suggested that a 1 billion USD fund would generate roughly 20 million USD revenue. It is unclear what assumptions underlie these numbers, though, and hence how realistic they are. Streamex has characterized lease fees as a portion of leasing income , which suggests that the company's revenue will decline if lease yields drop. It is also highly uncertain how high transfer fees will be given that GLDY is not trading yet. I would argue that turnover of a yield generating gold product is likely to be low, which could lead to revenue falling short of management expectations. The tokenization fee is also being waived for the launch, which will weigh on initial revenue. Streamex believes that it can tokenize 300 million USD in the near-term, and up to 1 billion USD in the next 12 months. Beyond that, Streamex has suggested that it can lease 3 billion USD, which would result in revenue of up to 60 million USD. A potentially overlooked aspect of Streamex's business model is that revenue is dependent on both token demand and Monetary Metal's ability to lease gold. It is unclear how excess gold that cannot be leased would be handled, although it would not be surprising if this reduces yield for all token holders. Streamex's margins should be strong, and I expect the company to achieve breakeven with a fairly modest amount of revenue. While it is difficult to estimate at this stage, Streamex could achieve cash flow breakeven with as little as 20 million USD revenue. Whether the company will need to raise additional capital in order to reach this point will depend on how quickly revenue ramps. Streamex currently has around 11 million USD cash on its balance sheet and recently raised a little over 40 million USD. This liquidity is sizeable relative to cash burn of around 5 million USD per quarter. Conclusion Streamex's revenue should begin to scale in coming quarters, and margins could be high with a fairly modest amount of revenue. Even with strong margins, Streamex probably needs to tokenize around 2 billion USD in order to justify its current market capitalization. This seems unlikely given the market capitalization of the largest players in the space (XAUT, PAXG) and the scale of the partners Streamex is working with. I also believe that there is a risk of yield income and transfer fees falling short of management expectations. As a result, I expect Streamex's share price to remain under pressure as tokenization and revenue fall short of investor expectations.
