Summary Riot Platforms has surged from single digits to over $20 in just two months, showcasing strong momentum. RIOT's recent rally highlights renewed investor interest in the cryptocurrency mining sector. The stock's performance reflects optimism around Bitcoin prices and RIOT's operational leverage. Continued volatility in crypto markets and the adoption of AI/HPC could impact RIOT's future trajectory. Riot Platforms ( RIOT ) has been on a hot streak, with the stock rising from the single digits to above $19 within 2 months. Some of this rally is a result of Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) rise over approximately the same time. Riot also has its own accomplishments that drove the stock higher. I think that Bitcoin and Riot will have another strong rally in the final phase of this crypto price cycle. I also see another strong potential opportunity with Riot's efforts to diversify into artificial intelligence/high performance computing [AI/HPC] . Company Background Riot Platforms is a $7 billion market cap, United States-based company that operates primarily as a Bitcoin miner. Riot reports results under two segments: Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. The Bitcoin Mining segment comprised 88% of total revenue for the first six months of 2025. This segment operates large-scale Bitcoin Mining facilities in Rockdale & Corsicana, Texas, and two facilities in Kentucky. The Rockdale facility provides 700 megawatts [MW] of total developed capacity. The Corsicana facility provides 400 MW of capacity. Riot's acquisition of Block Mining in 2024 gave the company another 60 MW of operational capacity in Kentucky. Riot plans to increase the Kentucky capacity to 100 MW in 2025. Riot's Engineering segment comprised the other 12% of total revenue in the first six months of 2025. The Engineering segment handles the designing, manufacturing, and installation of power distribution equipment and other custom electrical-related products. These products/services are provided to large-scale commercial and government-based customers. The markets for this segment include: power generation, data centers, water, utilities, industrial, and alternative energy. Riot has a new potential market opportunity with the development of AI/HPC. The company launched a scalable data center platform to support the development of AI/HPC applications at its Corsicana facility. Riot is also evaluating expansion opportunities for developing additional power capacity to support AI/HPC applications. The focus is to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns. These investments can be a long-term strategic investment in the data center sector. Growth Catalysts Riot should benefit over the long term from the rise in the price of Bitcoin over the long-term. I think there is a good chance that Bitcoin will make a higher-high in the near term, probably over the next couple of months. The price of Bitcoin has been consolidating since hitting its all-time high of about $124,000. We haven't seen the blow-off top yet in this current Bitcoin price cycle. While there is no guarantee that this will happen this time, I do think there is a strong possibility that it will based on past patterns, which have been fairly consistent. The blow-off top is indicated by the RSI indicator reaching extreme overbought levels on the RSI indicator on Bitcoin's monthly chart. Here's how that looks: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Monthly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) We can see how the price of Bitcoin increased to above 90 on the RSI in each price or halving cycle (in 2017 and 2021). The extreme overbought conditions are illustrated by the green shaded areas above 70 on the RSI indicator in the middle of the chart. The RSI did not yet reach that extreme overbought level yet in the current cycle. So, I think we are likely to see another strong rally that takes Bitcoin to new highs and an extreme overbought level. The price of Riot also tends to rise to extreme overbought levels. Here's how that looks: Riot Platforms (RIOT) Monthly Stock Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Riot's monthly chart above shows the RSI above the bullish 50 level, but still below the overbought level of 70. This shows the recent positive momentum. The MACD is also showing positive momentum as the blue line crossed above the red signal line and the histogram bars are green and increasing in length. If this price cycle is similar to the previous cycles, the RSI has plenty of room to move higher. It is also worthy to note that Riot's stock price made a higher high from the 2017 cycle to the 2021 cycle. So, it is possible that it makes another all-time high in the current cycle. However, this may not occur in this cycle since Riot has lagged Bitcoin's price so far. Investors should also be aware of the sharp dips that Riot's stock makes after reaching its peaks. The price tends to drop over 90% from the peak to the bottom. So, profit taking at the extreme overbought levels is something to consider. AI/HPC Opportunity The company stated in the Q2 2025 earnings report that its AI/HPC initiative is not a pivot to do an AI/HPC 'deal.' Instead, Riot stated that its initiative was to add new data center capability. The company plans on adding that capability to as much of its power portfolio as possible. As a result, Riot expects this to transform the company in future years. It looks like Riot is aiming to optimize its efficiencies/productivity in its power business by incorporating AI/HPC. If executed effectively, this can give the company a competitive advantage by lowering costs. In a nutshell, Riot's mindset is to monetize its megawatts to use as much of its power portfolio as possible. If the company does decide to do a deal in the future, it could add additional growth. The global enhanced AI/HPC market is expected to grow at about 9.4% annually to reach over $6 billion by 2032 . The drivers for this expected growth include increased adoption of AI and machine learning in research & enterprise applications, demand for high performance data processing, and growth in cloud-based HPC services. The advances in CPUs/GPUs and increased computing demand from the healthcare, manufacturing, finance, and scientific research are also drivers of this expected growth. The Bitcoin Mining Business Riot Platforms plans to utilize Bitcoin mining where it is advantageous. The company also plans to increase its shareholders' exposure to value-accreting assets. Riot currently holds 19,287 Bitcoin on the balance sheet, which is worth $2.35 billion at a price of $122,000 per coin. The balance sheet can grow significantly if the price of Bitcoin continues to grow over the long term as it has in the past. Riot made operational efficiency improvements that rank the company as one of the most efficient operators in the industry. The company also maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Riot's strategy has been to sell the monthly Bitcoin production that it mines to finance ongoing operations. The company also raises funds through a $200 million Bitcoin collateralized financing facility with Coinbase ( COIN ). This financing facility enables Riot to fund multiple growth opportunities while reducing the need to issue stock, which would be dilutive to shareholders. The company acquired additional land around the Corsicana facility. This brought Riot's total footprint in that area to 858 acres, up from 265 acres . The extra land ensures that Riot can fully use its large-scale access to power that they have onsite. Riot recently reported an 8% increase in the amount of Bitcoin produced in September 2025 as compared to September 2024. However, the Bitcoin produced declined 7% from August 2025. Another positive for Riot is that it increased the deployed hash rate by 29% to 36.5 EH/s while the average operating hash rate increased 65% to 32.2 EH/s yoy in September 2025. Power costs increased 19% to 4.2c/kWh over the same period. This demonstrates that Riot processed transactions at a much faster rate as compared to its increase in power costs. The Risks for the Stock Since Riot is highly correlated to the price of Bitcoin, the stock has experienced extreme declines during the crypto bear markets. As I previously mentioned Riot's stock declined by over 90% during the bear crypto markets. This is a larger percentage drop than Bitcoin experiences. Therefore, investors should consider keeping a close eye on the technical aspects of Riot's stock to buy the extreme dips and sell the extreme rips to maximize profits. One recent risk for Riot Platforms has been the inflationary environment and uncertainty regarding tariffs leading to logistics disruptions for miner delivery schedules. This has been driven by constraints in the global supply chains for miners, electrical distribution equipment, and construction materials. Constraints like this could lead to future delays. I should note that Riot is holding many electrical components and materials to develop the Corsicana facility and to expand the Kentucky facility to mitigate the effect of these constraints. There is no guarantee that Riot will be successful with incorporating AI/HPC into its business. The company is currently evaluating the feasibility of developing 600 MW of available capacity at Corsicana. There is no guarantee that a shift to AI/HPC will be feasible. If it is determined to not be feasible, it could lead to a significant sell-off for the stock, as optimism for a successful shift could be partially priced into the stock. Outlook for Riot Platforms I believe that Bitcoin will experience another leg higher in the current price cycle. I originally thought that this price cycle would end in October 2025 based on the length of the previous two cycles . However, it is possible that this cycle runs a bit longer since Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the all-time high. If Bitcoin does experience another leg higher for its price, Riot is likely to join the rise. Riot's stock is currently in a strong uptrend. So, I expect this to continue until the stock shows signs of waning momentum on the RSI and MACD technical indicators. The successful shift to AI/HPC represents a longer-term potential positive catalyst for Riot. If the company finds that AI/HPC is feasible, then the stock could experience better growth in future price cycles.
