HTX Research New Report：Hormuz Shock, U.S. Midterms, and the Repricing of the Crypto Market

Executive Summary The market has entered a new regime. What had previously been a macro environment supported by easing expectations and recovering risk appetite has now shifted into a far more restrictive framework defined by three overlapping forces: a geopolitical energy shock, higher-for-longer interest rates, and rising policy uncertainty. President Trump’s latest remarks on Iran were intended to project control. He emphasized military progress, argued that strategic objectives were nearing completion, and suggested that the oil shock would prove temporary. Yet the market reaction showed little confidence in that narrative. Oil prices moved higher, Treasury yields rose, and equity futures fell. Investors were not focused on claims of victory. They were focused on the implication that the United States may continue or even intensify military operations over the next two to three weeks, including possible action against Iran’s energy infrastructure. In effect, the market was not pricing “war nearing its end.” It was pricing an unresolved supply shock and an unclear policy anchor. For commodities, this means crude oil is still being driven primarily by supply-side risk premium rather than stronger demand. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical and fragile chokepoints in the global energy system. As long as stable navigation is not restored, geopolitical premium will remain embedded in oil prices. Even if the United States is now relatively energy independent, global oil pricing is not a function of one country’s supply-demand balance. It is a function of marginal global supply security. Europe and Asia, particularly more import-dependent economies exposed to the Strait, remain vulnerable to sustained cost pressure. For crypto, the key issue is not whether Bitcoin is “a safe haven” in a binary sense. The real issue is whether global liquidity and risk budgets are being reallocated. Higher oil prices act as an additional tax on global cash flow: households face higher living costs, while institutions must reassess inflation, rates, and portfolio risk. That reduces the amount of marginal capital available for high-volatility assets. Under those conditions, BTC may remain relatively resilient because of its liquidity, institutional acceptance, and macro-hedge narrative, but that does not imply immediate upside. ETH remains more dependent on on-chain activity, ETF flows, and recovering risk appetite. Most altcoins, AI narrative tokens, and assets without real cash-flow support face greater pressure because they are most dependent on abundant liquidity and narrative premium. What is particularly important is that this is not a classic safe-haven episode. In a traditional flight to safety, gold and silver would rally alongside defensive assets. Instead, precious metals fell, yields rose, and risk assets weakened. That suggests the market is dealing with a liquidity-contraction shock rather than a straightforward rotation from risk into safety. For crypto, that distinction matters. It means that war escalation does not automatically grant BTC a higher premium. What still matters most are the Fed’s policy path, the direction of dollar liquidity, and whether global risk capital is willing to re-expand. The second major variable is political. The U.S. midterm elections are becoming increasingly relevant to crypto because the industry’s rerating depends not only on macro conditions but also on policy delivery. The Iran conflict may not directly decide election outcomes, but if it pushes up gasoline prices and deepens pressure on household budgets, it could reshape the congressional map. That raises the probability of divided government: Republicans retaining structural strength in the Senate while Democrats regain ground in the House. For crypto, that would likely slow legislation, particularly broad market-structure or stablecoin bills that require bipartisan coordination. But it would not necessarily reverse the industry’s broader trajectory, because more of the sector’s progress now depends on administrative implementation, ETF expansion, stablecoin infrastructure, custody, payments, and compliance rails. The core takeaway is that the market is no longer in a broad risk-expansion phase. It is in a phase of defense, stratification, and repricing. Commodities remain dominated by geopolitical supply risk. Crypto is internally diverging: BTC remains relatively stronger, ETH is more conditional, and most altcoins remain vulnerable. The next real opportunity will require relief on three fronts: a meaningful easing of the Hormuz-related supply shock, renewed room for the Fed to turn less restrictive, and greater clarity on the U.S. political path into the midterms. 1. Trump’s April 2 Address and the Repricing of Cross-Asset Markets 1.1 The Core Shift in Market Interpretation Trump’s address changed the market’s framing of the conflict. The issue was no longer simply whether war would escalate, but whether the conflict would continue to generate a lasting supply shock with no credible exit framework. Markets had hoped for a clearer path toward de-escalation, negotiations, or at least a more concrete signal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, they received a combination of “we are close to completion” and “we may continue striking hard for the next two to three weeks.” That mixture increased uncertainty rather than reduced it. As a result, the market’s main focus shifted further away from the timing of Fed cuts and toward the durability of inflationary supply pressure. The crucial question became whether the energy shock would constrain global liquidity conditions long enough to reshape pricing across oil, rates, and risk assets. 1.2 The First-Round Cross-Asset Response The immediate response across asset classes was revealing. Oil surged. Treasury yields climbed. Equity futures weakened. Gold and silver fell. Bitcoin also moved lower. This is not the pattern of a clean flight to safety. It is the pattern of a market confronting a supply shock that raises inflation, delays easing, and compresses risk budgets. The rise in crude reflects concern that the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable and that even partial disruption is enough to support elevated risk premium. The rise in yields is even more important, because it shows that the market is not pricing rapid policy support. It is pricing constrained central banks. The decline in precious metals suggests that real yields and the dollar still dominate short-term pricing. The drop in BTC shows that it is still treated, at least initially, as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a pure macro hedge. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-speech-unleashes-more-pain-us-consumers-with-5-gasoline-record-diesel-2026-04-02/?utm_source=chatgpt.com 1.3 Why This Is Not a Traditional Safe-Haven Market The current environment differs from a classic crisis template. In a standard risk-off move, Treasuries rally, gold rises, and the dollar firms as equities fall. This time, oil is pushing inflation expectations higher, bonds are being sold, and the market is repricing toward a longer period of restrictive policy. That creates a stagflation-like setup rather than a straightforward recession scare. For crypto, that distinction is critical. Assets such as BTC and ETH are still highly sensitive to discount rates and the availability of marginal liquidity. As long as higher oil prices keep upward pressure on inflation expectations and yields, crypto is unlikely to decouple in a sustainable way from the broader macro backdrop. 2. Hormuz, Energy, and the Repricing of Commodities 2.1 Why Hormuz Sits at the Center of This Market The Strait of Hormuz is the key transmission channel linking geopolitical escalation to the macro outlook. It is not merely symbolic. It is one of the most important physical chokepoints in global oil transport. A meaningful portion of world crude exports passes through it, especially toward Asia. That matters because the market is not just pricing whether oil exists in the ground. It is pricing whether oil can move. Even if major producers discuss raising output, and even if the U.S. or Venezuela can increase supply at the margin, the market will continue assigning premium as long as shipping routes remain uncertain. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/jp-morgan-warns-oil-could-top-150-if-disruptions-persist-into-midmay-2026-04-02/?utm_source=chatgpt.com 2.2 Who Actually Bears the Energy Shock The burden of the shock is unevenly distributed. The United States faces a domestic political problem: higher gasoline prices and declining consumer sentiment. Europe faces a structural macro problem: slower growth and a weaker currency if energy remains expensive. Asia faces the deepest direct exposure because of its dependence on imported energy flowing through Hormuz. This uneven burden explains why the dollar can remain firm. Relative to Europe and Asia, the U.S. still has a more defensible energy and financing position. That can attract global capital back into dollar assets even when geopolitical stress originates from U.S. military policy itself. For crypto, that means non-U.S. liquidity remains vulnerable, which tends to hurt the outer edge of the crypto market first. 2.3 Three Oil Scenarios for the Next Three Months The baseline scenario is prolonged high volatility with oil staying elevated in a roughly $100–$115 range. This assumes Hormuz remains impaired enough to preserve premium, but not fully shut. The bullish-oil scenario is a more severe disruption in which selective access, harassment of shipping, or attacks on energy infrastructure push Brent toward $120–$150. In that case, markets move deeper into stagflation pricing and risk assets face broad pressure. The relief scenario would require a more credible arrangement for maritime security and transit restoration, allowing oil to fall quickly. But even in that case, risk assets would not necessarily surge immediately, because the market would then shift focus to war costs, fiscal strain, and weaker growth. 2.4 Oil, Gold, and the Redefinition of Inflation Assets The drop in gold and silver after Trump’s speech shows that precious metals are not automatically first-order beneficiaries of geopolitical stress. In the short run, higher yields and a stronger dollar matter more. Over a longer horizon, gold may regain appeal if the market begins worrying about fiscal sustainability, persistent inflation, and fiat credibility. The clearest inflation-sensitive assets in this environment are energy itself, selected energy equities, shipping, and oil services. That means the commodity opportunity is not about a generalized inflation trade. It is about distinguishing between assets benefiting from a physical supply shock and those being hurt by high rates and a slower demand backdrop. 3. Crypto Transmission: From BTC to Altcoins 3.1 Bitcoin’s Real Role in This Phase Bitcoin is best understood through a two-stage lens. In the first stage, it trades like a high-volatility liquidity asset. That is what the immediate post-speech reaction showed. When energy shock pushes yields higher and compresses risk budgets, BTC comes under pressure alongside other risk assets. In the second stage, however, BTC may recover first. That is because it has the deepest liquidity, the broadest institutional acceptance, and the strongest claim to benefit from any eventual policy clarity in the U.S. market. BTC is therefore not a pure safe haven, but it remains the relative leader within crypto. 3.2 ETH and the Conditional Recovery Trade ETH occupies a more conditional position. It is tied not only to macro liquidity, but also to on-chain activity, ETF-related flows, and investor appetite for smart-contract exposure. In a constrained macro environment, ETH is less likely to outperform unless there is clear evidence that risk appetite is recovering and that capital is rotating back toward broader digital asset infrastructure. 3.3 Why Most Altcoins Remain the Weakest Link Most altcoins are still highly dependent on abundant liquidity, retail speculation, and narrative premium. That makes them the most vulnerable segment in an environment defined by higher rates and energy-driven uncertainty. AI narrative tokens and other high-beta thematic assets are especially exposed because they lack the combination of institutional access, stable cash flow, and direct regulatory tailwinds. 3.4 Stablecoins, Payments, and RWA as Relative Winners Not every crypto vertical is equally weak in this environment. Stablecoins, payments, custody, and real-world asset rails may prove more resilient because they sit closer to the dollar system and address real transaction demand. In a world of stronger dollar demand, slower traditional cross-border payment systems, and rising geopolitical friction, on-chain dollars may become more useful rather than less. That is why stablecoin regulation matters so much. It is not simply a regulatory headline. It is a battle over whether the dollar will continue extending into digital infrastructure through private rails, and how value will be distributed across exchanges, issuers, custodians, and payment systems. 4. Midterms, Congress, and the Future of Crypto Policy 4.1 Why the Midterms Matter for Crypto Valuation By 2026, crypto’s policy premium depends on whether Congress can continue advancing stablecoin rules, market-structure legislation, custody frameworks, and token classification. If the midterms reshape House or Senate control, the speed and shape of policy delivery will change accordingly. War matters because it affects domestic economics. If the conflict keeps oil high and pushes gasoline prices up, it can erode support for the administration and reshape swing districts. That in turn affects control of the House, which is where crypto’s legislative calendar may become more vulnerable. 4.2 The Risk of a Divided Congress A divided Congress is increasingly plausible. In that scenario, crypto policy does not necessarily reverse, but it slows. Time risk becomes important: Congress may prioritize budgets, war-related matters, and household relief over crypto. Text risk becomes important too: legislation may move in a more bank-friendly direction, limiting stablecoin yields or imposing stricter custody and platform obligations. That would not destroy the crypto thesis, but it would reduce the pace and scale of institutional tailwinds. 4.3 The Core Policy Battle: Stablecoins and Market Structure The central U.S. policy battle now revolves around two issues. The first is stablecoin architecture: who can issue, who can pay yield, and how on-chain dollars interact with the banking system. The second is market structure: how digital commodities and digital securities are defined, and how regulatory authority is divided. These are not abstract legal disputes. They determine whether crypto becomes a narrower, more bank-like extension of the existing system, or a broader internet-native financial architecture with its own payment, settlement, and account layers. 4.4 Political Capital as a New Industry Fundamental One of the most important developments in 2026 is that crypto has become an organized political force. Industry-backed PACs and advocacy groups now have enough capital to influence races, shape messaging, and pressure lawmakers. That changes the way markets should think about regulation. Policy is no longer only an external risk. It is also an arena in which the industry is actively investing to shape outcomes. But that does not guarantee victory. It simply means congressional seat changes now matter directly for crypto valuation, because political capital can either be converted into policy delivery or diluted into compromise. 5. Scenarios and Strategic Implications 5.1 Base Case: High Volatility, Structural Focus, Lower Beta The most likely near-term regime is one of high volatility, selective resilience, and weak broad beta. Oil stays elevated, yields remain firm, the dollar remains resilient, and crypto continues to diverge internally. In that environment, BTC remains the relative winner, ETH stays conditional, and most altcoins remain under pressure. 5.2 Bullish Case: Energy Relief and Legislative Continuity A constructive scenario would require both energy relief and policy continuity. Oil would need to come down in a credible way, and Congress would need to continue advancing crypto legislation despite election noise. In that case, BTC would likely recover first, followed by ETH and policy-linked infrastructure assets, with higher-beta narratives catching up later. 5.3 Bearish Case: Oil Above $120, Policy Delay, and Second-Round Compression The bearish scenario combines deeper energy disruption, higher yields, and congressional delay. If oil pushes decisively higher, the Fed remains constrained, and crypto legislation stalls or becomes more restrictive, the market would likely enter another round of valuation compression. BTC may still outperform on a relative basis, but not in absolute terms. ETH and altcoins would face stronger downside pressure. 5.4 Final Conclusion: Watch the Transmission Chain The key lesson is that the market is no longer trading a simple “Fed pivot” story. It is trading a new framework in which war-driven supply shock, election politics, and crypto’s institutional window all interact. Investors should focus less on headlines and more on the transmission chain: oil, yields, dollar liquidity, domestic political pressure, and legislative progress. The assets most worth tracking remain BTC, stablecoins, payment rails, RWA infrastructure, and a narrow set of high-quality platforms with clear policy or structural tailwinds. The largest opportunities are likely to emerge only when macro pressure begins to ease while the institutional path for crypto remains intact. About HTX Research HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. Committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, HTX Research plays a pivotal role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making within the digital asset space. Through rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and fostering a deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us . 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Why It Matters for Coinbase. https://www.barrons.com/articles/coinbase-stock-crypto-midterm-elections-stand-with-crypto-fe1eee85 Reuters / Citi：Chances for passing crypto bill would shrink if Democrats gain seats in the midterms https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citigroup-cuts-12-month-bitcoin-ether-targets-us-crypto-legislation-stalls-2026-03-17/ The post HTX Research New Report：Hormuz Shock, U.S. Midterms, and the Repricing of the Crypto Market first appeared on HTX Square .