Prediction market volumes are surging in 2026 and are on track to more than quadruple this year, potentially reaching $1T within four years, CNBC reported, citing Bernstein. Despite rising regulatory scrutiny, Bernstein said it is unlikely to derail long-term growth. Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report on Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60B in market volume year-to-date — more than the $51B in total prediction market volume in all of 2025. Robinhood ( HOOD ) stock rose as much as 10%, and Coinbase ( COIN ) added 6% following the reports. Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, the report said, citing Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover, in a note last week, called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction market — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total market volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% increase compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction market trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade. Robinhood ( HOOD ) and Coinbase ( COIN ) began offering Kalshi's prediction markets to their users in March 2025 and this January, respectively. “Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of market legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” Chhugani wrote.
