The U.S. faces a 40% chance of entering a recession in 2025, a scenario that could deal a significant blow to the crypto market, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin. In an interview , Puckrin explained that while a full-fledged recession is not yet the most likely outcome, the odds have increased considerably due to growing macroeconomic instability. He pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including tariffs on trading partners and budget cuts, as potential recession triggers. “Trump and his advisors have not completely dismissed the possibility of a recession, which makes it a credible risk,” Puckrin noted. However, he clarified that while Trump is not actively pushing for a recession, the administration’s economic strategies could unintentionally lead to one. The growing macro uncertainty has already started to shake markets, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipping as investors seek safer opportunities in European capital markets. According to Puckrin, this flight from the U.S. dollar is contributing to the recent weakness in risk-on assets, including crypto. Tariffs and Macroeconomic Uncertainty The recent trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have sent shockwaves through the crypto market, driving down prices across the board. Bitcoin (BTC), which had surged past $109,000 in January 2025, saw a sharp 24% correction following the tariff announcement. Altcoins have fared even worse, with the broader market sentiment shifting from euphoria after Trump’s November 2025 re-election to extreme fear as trade war concerns mount. According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets are likely to remain under pressure from tariffs until at least April 2025. Sondergaard believes that only a diplomatic breakthrough or a softening of the Trump administration’s stance could reverse the downward trend. Crypto Shows Signs of Recovery Amid Policy Shifts Despite the bleak outlook, some analysts see glimmers of hope. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently suggested that Bitcoin may have found a price bottom in March 2025, pointing to a slight softening in Trump’s trade rhetoric. Thielen believes this policy shift could signal a potential BTC price reversal, offering a ray of optimism for crypto investors. While the market remains fragile, any sign of de-escalation in the trade war or a shift in monetary policy could reignite risk appetite. The post U.S. Recession Fears Cast Shadow Over Crypto Market, Analyst Warns appeared first on TheCoinrise.com .
