Summary The next big bull run in Bitcoin is underway, with targets between $180k-$300k once new all-time highs are achieved. Despite relatively high "Greed" levels, historical analogies suggest Bitcoin can rally significantly, similar to the 429% rally from September 2020. Technical indicators show Bitcoin has plenty of upside potential, with weekly and daily RSI levels indicating room for further growth. Short-term resistance may occur around $72k-$74k, but beyond that, Bitcoin has a clear path for a strong bullish advance. As I have been anticipating in recent articles , the next big bull run in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is now in progress. New all-time weekly and monthly closing highs are a stone's throw away, and once those levels have been cracked, the new bull will be in the open field. My targets for this move are $180k-$300k. Some cite relatively high levels of "Greed" as measured by the Crypto Fear/Greed Index as a reason why BTC can't rally on from here. alternative.me While that can be the case under certain conditions, if we look back at the most analogous setup in the prior history of the Bitcoin market, we can see that the current situation of the peak of March 2021 and the breakout happening now is analogous to the period between the peak of December 2017 and the big breakout of September 2020. TheBullBear.com, TradingView If we overlay the Fear/Greed Index on the monthly chart, we find that the "Greed" level of today matches that which existed just as the 2020 rally was getting underway. It's worth noting that monthly RSI was also at the same level as today, back in 2020. TheBullBear.com The structures and durations of both setups are remarkably similar, so it is not an out of distribution possibility that the results could be similar. Greed could reach maximum levels and stay there for quite some time as Bitcoin rallies hard. In the prior instance, that resulted in a 429% rally from the breakout point. This situation is very similar in many respects to sentiment indicators such as the Bull/Bear ratio starting a bull run from a relatively high level, or technical indicators being already "overbought". Bears will often point out that a bull "can't" begin under such conditions...but this often turns out to be incorrect. Bullishness and "overbought" levels can persist for quite some time as a bull move continues unabated. In this particular case, however, the technical condition of the Bitcoin market has plenty of upside wiggle room. The weekly chart, for example: TheBullBear.com, TradingView Here we can see that price is breaking out above the upper rail of the red flag consolidation pattern. Weekly RSI has lots of upside before getting into its resistance zone. The lengthy consolidation in the area of the prior all-time highs is extremely bullish. Here's the daily: TheBullBear.com, TradingView Breaking out above the pattern. Daily RSI will reach resistance fast, but it can stay up there for a while, or even correct a bit, as the market continues to advance. Short term: TheBullBear.com, TradingView Breaking out. Could get a little sticky in the 72-74k area as the last of the bears sell out. But after that, there's no more resistance, and the bull has a clear field to charge ahead. No technical setup is completely unambiguous or a "slam dunk", but this one is among the stronger bull cases I have seen in almost 20 years of analyzing markets.
