Trading Spaces recap: One week after the $19B wipeout — are we bottoming or just wobbling?

TL;DR Last Friday’s ~$19B+ liquidation cascade reset positioning across crypto; this week’s action has been a shaky retest rather than a clean recovery, with BTC probing the low ~100Ks and failing multiple reclaim attempts. Den’s “line in the sand” on BTC: ~$98K . If it can hold above that level, there’s room for a base (but it might take time). Macro watchlist driving chop: China–U.S. tariff rhetoric , private-credit & regional bank stress headlines , CPI into month-end , and earnings season spillover into risk. How bottoms form (Den’s checklist): reclaim logical levels, flip EMAs on mid-timeframes, and let time do its job — outlier flushes often require weeks (not hours) of digestion. Alts: TOTAL3/“Others” are back at key support; BTC dominance still leaning up . Translation: majors must lead before breadth returns. Process over prediction: “It’s okay to not know.” Either buy deep sweeps at pre-mapped demand or wait for strength/confirmation — not the chop between. What just happened (and why it matters) Den and Matt opened with the obvious: a historic leverage flush that rivaled anything we’ve seen for speed and scale. Leverage plus outsized open interest made the market fragile; one negative macro impulse was enough to cascade perps, trip liquidations and erase weeks of structure in one hour candles . Since then, attempts to reclaim “lost” ranges have mostly failed at resistance . Think: pushes toward ~115K on BTC followed by rejections and closes beneath key daily EMAs. It’s classic post-shock behavior: bidders are cautious, liquidity is thinner, and every headline swings risk. “ We’re right below resistance, but also right above the last-chance supports. It’s chop city — until it’s not. ” — Den Macro: the overhangs that can amplify every move Tariff headlines: Conflicting signaling around China–U.S. trade keeps volatility elevated. Den’s rule: avoid trading the noise; anchor to dated catalysts and price levels instead. Private credit & regional banks: A run of lender stress stories risks morphing from “one-offs” into systemic-feeling headlines. If that narrative builds, expect risk-off reflexes across equities and crypto. Data & policy: CPI at month-end and an upcoming rate decision can shift the tone, even if cuts are expected. Earnings: Not crypto-specific, but equity reactions matter while crypto trades like high-beta tech. Bottom line: uncertainty is the theme — and markets hate it. Expect wide ranges and headline whips until a few of these dominoes fall into place. BTC: the “last stand” zone Den’s map is stark: Support that must hold: around ~$98K — “last resort for bulls this cycle.” Why it’s tricky: Price is squeezed between that support and nearby resistance after failing multiple EMAs/reclaims. What strength would actually look like: on the 4h/1D, EMAs reclaimed and curling up , reclaim + hold of recently lost shelves, and higher lows that don’t get stuffed the next day. Until then, assume time-based repair . Past analogs suggest these zones often need weeks of grinding before trend returns — if support holds. ETH and the majors: follow the leader ETH tried to reclaim the quarterly open / range highs — and got faded. The read is simple: majors have to print strength signals first , or nothing else sticks. Breadth, TOTAL3 & BTC.D: why alts look heavy TOTAL3 / “Others”: sitting near yearly opens/mid-range supports after rejecting mid-range breakouts. These are “could bottom here, but needs time” locations. BTC Dominance (BTC.D): still grinding up — historically a headwind for alts until majors stabilize. Translation: this isn’t the tape to force broad alt exposure. Let breadth prove itself first. Den’s process: two valid entry archetypes Den was blunt: after an outlier event, “not knowing” is a position. Deep sweep punt: A fast, obvious wick into pre-mapped weekly demand (e.g., a dramatic stab under ~98K that instantly reclaims). Tight invalidation, small size, accept it’s a “last resort” style bet. Strength/confirmation: Wait for level reclaims + EMA flips on the 4h/1D and build into continuation. There’s ample upside if a real trend resets; you don’t need the exact bottom. Across both: position sizing and invalidation first. No martingales into resistance. How bottoms tend to form (Den’s checklist) Reclaim lost levels and hold (no immediate fail/reject). EMAs flip on mid-timeframes after time-based digestion. Failed breakdowns become new demand on retests. Breadth improves: TOTAL3/“Others” break and hold above supply; BTC.D cools. Macro stops getting worse (neutral > “good” at first). If you’re not seeing these, it’s probably still a base-building phase — not a new uptrend. Playbook (next 1–2 weeks) Respect ~$98K on BTC as the key line. Trade majors first. Let BTC and ETH show strength; only expand to alts if breadth breaks out and holds. Two entries only: Breakout-strength: fresh level breaks that hold with EMAs aligned. Retest-logic: violent flush into pre-mapped demand with immediate reclaim . Risk rules: define invalidation in advance and size so a stop equals a known % of portfolio risk. Avoid chop traps: if price is wedged between nearby resistance and “last stand” support, do less. Watch the replay & follow along Catch the full replay on YouTube: Follow @krakenfx , @krakenpro and @Dentoshi for stream times, charts and highlights. Our Trading Spaces recap series keeps the format consistent so you can skim the TL;DR , then dive into levels and process when markets get messy. Trade with Dentoshi on Kraken Pro The post Trading Spaces recap: One week after the $19B wipeout — are we bottoming or just wobbling? appeared first on Kraken Blog .